Named after HAL 9000: not because AI systems are bound to fail, but because "what would have to happen for exactly this to occur?" is the most honest question you can ask of any undertaking. Methodological basis: Gary Klein's pre-mortem technique (HBR 2007) and Charlie Munger's inversion principle — plus a Goodhart layer of its own that nobody else asks for. Everything stays in this browser window; nothing is saved or transmitted.
Short and concrete — one sentence is enough, but more helps the quality of the next steps.
2 · How does this fail, guaranteed?
For each category: an honest answer to the leading question. Imagine the project has already failed — what was the reason? Multiple entries per category are allowed.
3 · Fold back every failure path
For each failure path collected: one concrete safeguard that defuses it before project start — not "we'll watch out for it," but a real, concrete step.
4 · The Goodhart Layer
The step most pre-mortems skip: can passing this test itself become a failure mode?
Question A
How would a team notice that it has only learned to pass this pre-mortem — without actually fixing the underlying risk?
Question B
Which metric from this project could be optimized without the real outcome improving?
5 · Result
Summary of all failure paths, safeguards, and the Goodhart check — as text to save or share.
Discuss the result with me? No obligation.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the HAL Test?
The HAL Test is a free, guided pre-mortem tool: it lets you mentally fail your project in advance to find the most likely failure paths before they become real. Named after HAL 9000 — not because AI systems are bound to fail, but because "what would have to happen for exactly this to occur?" is the most honest question you can ask of any undertaking.
What is the HAL Test's methodological basis?
Gary Klein's pre-mortem technique (Harvard Business Review, 2007) and Charlie Munger's inversion principle. Both flip standard risk analysis: instead of asking what could go wrong, they assume failure has already happened — making risks more concrete and easier to name than open "what if" questions.
What is the Goodhart layer, and why does it exist?
An extra check most pre-mortem tools skip: can passing the test itself become a failure mode — for example if safeguards exist only on paper, or a metric gets optimized without the actual outcome improving? Named after Goodhart's Law.
Is my input saved or transmitted anywhere?
No. The HAL Test runs entirely in the browser window — there's no backend, no database, and nothing is sent to a server. Inputs can be copied or downloaded as text at the end, but otherwise disappear when you close the page.
What categories does the HAL Test use for failure paths?
Six categories: scope/timeline, stakeholders/communication, technology/dependencies, market/external factors, team/behavior, and metric gaming. Each category has a targeted leading question meant to surface the most honest answer, not the most convenient one.
Is the HAL Test free?
Yes, fully free and usable without sign-up — guided through five steps from describing the project to a finished, downloadable result.